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marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean...retransmitted
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
615 PM PST Tue 2 Dec 2008
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
No significant changes will be made to this forecast package.
The 18z GFS and 18z NAM maintain continuity from previous
runs...showing a front approaching the nrn waters Thu night.
Both models indicate gales along the boundary...but keep them N
of the area.
Ww3 seems fine compared to the 00z obs.
Previous discusiion follows
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Latest qscat pass and ship/buoy obs show mostly light winds
across the offshore waters...and indicate bl northerly winds to
about 20 kt across the far N WA waters. In the near term...quiet
pattern is expected to persist for the next few days with the
only sig weather feature in the form of the low pres trough that
will build along the California coast early tomorrow and
gradually lift N before dissipating by early Fri. Will continue
to follow majority of glbl and rgnl mdl guidance indicating Max
bl winds to abt 30 kt. A weakening frontal boundary is also
expected to approach the nrn pz5 waters by Thu night and Fri
morning time frame...and based on 12z GFS consistency along with
some support from ECMWF/Gem will bump winds up slightly ahead of
the boundary for the WA waters.
Otw in the longer term...the most recent run of the GFS now
places cutoff low pres across the southern pz6 waters by
sun...which seems to be the outlier when compared to other glbl
12z guidance esp with respect to strength and direction of bl
winds. For this last day of the forecast period lean more
towards ECMWF which brings a very weak circulation quickly
across the southern pz6 waters and keeps mainly a NW flow across
the region.
Seas...when compared to the 18z regional sea state
analysis...the 12z ww3 initialized well esp across the offshore
zones.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...None.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
.Forecaster Bell/Collins. Ocean forecast branch.
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