marine weather discussion NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 am EST Wed Dec 03 2008

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico... Caribbean Sea and southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w.

Radiofax schedule for graphical wind wave...surface forecast and peak wave period charts has changed. For the Atlantic Basin this includes 24...36...48 and 72 hour wind wave..24...48..72 hour surface forecast and 48 and 72 hour peak wave period charts. For additional information please refer to the fax schedule on the NHC web site at http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/radiofax.Shtml

The Gulf of Mexico... strong southerly return flow is setting up in the western Gulf in response to an amplifying deep layer trough pushing se through the Southern Plains. The qscat pass from 0110 UTC already shows a region with winds in the 25 to 30 kt range off the S TX coast. This trough will be forced northward and phase with the northern stream as it passes over the persistent ridge off the se coast and stretched into the eastern Gulf. This ridge will slow the southeastward progress of the cold front through the Gulf of Mexico. The models are in reasonable agreement with the timing of the cold front...but they differ with the potential surface wave along the boundary expected to move from the N central Gulf off the se coast Thu through Fri. The GFS appears to be a reasonable compromise with the surface wave between the stronger UKMET and the weaker ECMWF.

The SW N Atlc... the qscat pass from 2330 UTC showed that the two cold fronts in the SW N Atlc were rapidly approaching each other. The trailing front will reinforce the leading boundary today...with the remaining cold front expected to gradually weaken over the next two to three days as its mid to upper level impetus is forced northeastward over the ridge to its east. The models are in reasonable agreement on this scenario...but vary with the timing and strength of the surface wave associated with the cold front moving into NW waters Fri night. As mentioned above...the GFS appears to be a reasonable compromise with the surface wave between the stronger UKMET and the weaker ECMWF.

The Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlc zone... winds in the 25 to 30 kt range persist in the western Caribbean according to the 2334 qscat pass. The models agree on turning the mid to upper level flow more zonal over the next few days as the ridge over the NE Caribbean is forced SW by an approaching deep layer trough. Winds are expected to slacken at the surface and the front is expected to dissipate over the western Caribbean by Thu as a result.

Atlantic... none.

Caribbean... none.

Gulf of Mexico... none.

Forecaster schauer Clark. Tropical Prediction Center.